According to the United Nations , the world’s population will surpass 8 billion by 2022.
World Population Day, the global population is expected to reach 8 billion by 2022. India is also projected to surpass China in 2023 as the most populous country.
“World Population Day this year falls during a landmark year when we anticipate the births of eight billion people on the planet. It is a time to celebrate our diversity and recognize our common humanity. He added that the event is also a reminder of humanity’s shared responsibility for protecting our planet, and a time to reflect on our shortcomings in our mutual commitments.
Global population growth is slowest since 1950. It fell below 1% in 2020. According to the United Nations, the world’s population may grow to 8.5 billion people in 2030 and 9.7 million in 2050 according the latest projections. It is expected to peak at 10.4 billion in the 2080s, and remain there until 2100.
World Population Prospects 2022 states that fertility rates have declined in many countries over the past decade. Two-thirds of the world’s population live in countries or areas where the lifetime fertility rate is lower than 2.1 births per women. This is roughly the minimum level needed for zero long-term growth for a population with low mortality. Between 2022-2050, the population of 61 countries and areas is expected to decline by 1% or more due to low fertility levels and increased emigration rates.
Eight countries will account for more than half of the projected global population growth through 2050: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Egypt, Ethiopia), India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Pakistan and the Philippines. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to contribute more that half of the 2050 increase.
The average fertility of the global population was 2.3 births per women over a lifetime in 2021. This is down from 5 births per female in 1950. Global fertility is expected to fall further to 2.1 births for every woman by 2050.
For the first time since 1950, the global growth rate was below 1% per annum in 2020. In the 2080s, the world’s population will reach 10.4 billion. This number is expected to continue until 2100.
The momentum of past growth, which is embedded in the current population’s youthful age structure, will drive two-thirds the projected global population increase through 2050. Even if the rate of childbearing in high-fertility nations fell to two births per women, such growth would still occur.
Since most of the population growth until 2050 will be due to the momentum of past growth and other actions taken by governments to reduce fertility, they would not slow down the pace of growth between now-mid-century beyond the slowdown shown in the projections. However, these changes could have a greater impact on global population growth in second half of century.
Sustainable development is difficult due to high fertility and rapid population growth. For example, the growing need to educate children and young adults takes resources away from improving education quality.
For countries with high fertility rates, the Sustainable Development Goals will help accelerate the transition to lower fertility and slower population growth.
